| 子段 | 母敘事 | 狀態 | 錢佔比 % | 資金4週Δ | RS 水準 | 趨勢 | 廣度 | 突破 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 9.57% | +46% | 68 | +5.2% | 40% | 60% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 6.69% | -4% | 98 | +1.3% | 80% | 80% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 5.12% | -54% | 87 | +13.8% | 100% | 50% |
| 📍 | AI·應用 | 落後 Lagging | 2.93% | +72% | 29 | -6.5% | 29% | 29% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 2.34% | +53% | 96 | +13.5% | 100% | 100% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 轉弱 Weakening | 2.05% | -28% | 91 | -2.8% | 75% | 50% |
| 📍 | AI·模型 | 領先 Leading | 1.74% | -31% | 67 | +2.3% | 71% | 43% |
| 📍 | 消費 | 領先 Leading | 1.73% | +11% | 81 | +5.1% | 67% | 67% |
| 📍 | AI·應用 | 領先 Leading | 1.55% | -65% | 91 | +9.2% | 100% | 62% |
| 📍 | AI 硬體供應 | 領先 Leading | 1.51% | +85% | 88 | +3.4% | 78% | 56% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 轉弱 Weakening | 1.43% | +4% | 86 | -8.7% | 42% | 53% |
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 1.40% | +87% | 96 | +17.0% | 100% | 67% |
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 落後 Lagging | 1.39% | -3% | 31 | -4.9% | 55% | 64% |
| 📍 | 資安 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 1.28% | +54% | 63 | -0.6% | 56% | 44% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 轉弱 Weakening | 1.23% | +9% | 85 | -12.2% | 25% | 33% |
| 📍 | 資安 | 領先 Leading | 1.13% | -33% | 69 | +5.5% | 78% | 67% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 1.05% | +17% | 82 | -0.4% | 67% | 73% |
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 1.04% | +74% | 85 | +3.2% | 67% | 67% |
| 📍 | 生技/醫療 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 1.02% | +4% | 62 | -1.2% | 46% | 21% |
| 📍 | 工業/電氣 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.87% | +29% | 58 | -6.3% | 21% | 21% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 領先 Leading | 0.80% | +102% | 76 | +2.5% | 50% | 6% |
| 📍 | 能源/油氣 | 領先 Leading | 0.76% | +26% | 80 | +4.0% | 33% | 7% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.70% | -19% | 88 | -2.9% | 50% | 75% |
| 📍 | AI·能源 | 落後 Lagging | 0.68% | +41% | 28 | -11.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | AI·能源 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.66% | -5% | 73 | -4.4% | 36% | 27% |
| 📍 | 比特幣/加密 | 打底 Basing | 0.66% | -10% | 46 | +1.6% | 80% | 40% |
| 📍 | 比特幣/加密 | 領先 Leading | 0.63% | -43% | 85 | +23.8% | 75% | 75% |
| 📍 | 國防/航太 | 落後 Lagging | 0.56% | -6% | 45 | -11.5% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 消費 | 落後 Lagging | 0.56% | -10% | 35 | -2.2% | 0% | 33% |
| 📍 | 軟體/網路 | 落後 Lagging | 0.54% | -23% | 30 | -4.4% | 45% | 27% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 落後 Lagging | 0.52% | +24% | 41 | -7.3% | 25% | 12% |
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.51% | +4% | 68 | -7.7% | 33% | 17% |
| 📍 | 比特幣/加密 | 領先 Leading | 0.50% | -4% | 58 | +3.5% | 75% | 50% |
| 📍 | AI·應用 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.47% | -9% | 63 | -1.5% | 56% | 56% |
| 📍 | GLP-1/減重 | 落後 Lagging | 0.47% | -4% | 23 | -10.2% | 60% | 60% |
| 📍 | 生技/醫療 | 落後 Lagging | 0.44% | +21% | 33 | -4.8% | 36% | 9% |
| 📍 | 消費/品牌 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.41% | +12% | 53 | -13.8% | 27% | 0% |
| 📍 | 比特幣/加密 | 落後 Lagging | 0.40% | -5% | 49 | -2.9% | 71% | 86% |
| 📍 | 消費 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.39% | +54% | 50 | -8.9% | 14% | 0% |
📍新藥/生技 (臨床期)ETON98 | 生技/醫療 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.38% | +20% | 72 | -14.8% | 13% | 8% |
| 📍 | AI·能源 | 落後 Lagging | 0.36% | +11% | 8 | -12.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 基建/工程 | 落後 Lagging | 0.35% | -14% | 36 | -10.2% | 11% | 6% |
| 📍 | 金融科技/Fintech | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.34% | +6% | 75 | -4.0% | 60% | 20% |
| 📍 | 太空/衛星 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.33% | +113% | 56 | -11.7% | 60% | 40% |
| 📍 | 生技/醫療 | 領先 Leading | 0.31% | +106% | 96 | +31.2% | 100% | 80% |
| 📍 | 量子運算 | 落後 Lagging | 0.31% | +65% | 22 | -2.7% | 80% | 80% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.30% | -28% | 58 | -10.9% | 75% | 50% |
| 📍 | AI·晶片 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.30% | -11% | 66 | -22.4% | 67% | 33% |
| 📍 | 能源/油氣 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.30% | -25% | 74 | -1.8% | 12% | 12% |
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.30% | -13% | 58 | -12.8% | 20% | 0% |
| 📍 | 國防/航太 | 落後 Lagging | 0.29% | +3% | 25 | -10.5% | 8% | 15% |
| 📍 | 消費/品牌 | 落後 Lagging | 0.28% | -18% | 42 | -5.0% | 27% | 18% |
| 📍 | 金融科技/Fintech | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.28% | -21% | 52 | -16.5% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | AI 硬體供應 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.27% | +5% | 66 | -3.0% | 25% | 50% |
| 📍 | 景氣循環 | 落後 Lagging | 0.26% | +40% | 33 | -10.9% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 運輸/物流 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.26% | +64% | 62 | -13.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 貴金屬/黃金 | 領先 Leading | 0.25% | -37% | 82 | +2.1% | 83% | 11% |
| 📍 | 資安 | 領先 Leading | 0.25% | -62% | 84 | +4.7% | 75% | 50% |
| 📍 | 景氣循環 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.23% | +40% | 63 | -4.8% | 0% | 11% |
| 📍 | 貴金屬/黃金 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.22% | -27% | 62 | -3.0% | 83% | 0% |
| 📍 | 消費/品牌 | 落後 Lagging | 0.21% | +8% | 35 | -8.3% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.20% | +9% | 57 | -1.7% | 36% | 9% |
| 📍 | 媒體娛樂 | 領先 Leading | 0.19% | +0% | 57 | +4.5% | 50% | 50% |
| 📍 | 醫療服務 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.19% | -20% | 51 | -16.0% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | AI·基礎建設 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.18% | +60% | 54 | -5.2% | 33% | 33% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 落後 Lagging | 0.17% | +77% | 38 | -8.0% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 鋼鐵/金屬 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.17% | -37% | 87 | -0.6% | 83% | 0% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.16% | +55% | 73 | -7.5% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | AI·應用 | 落後 Lagging | 0.16% | -7% | 24 | -9.5% | 29% | 0% |
| 📍 | AI·能源 | 落後 Lagging | 0.16% | +39% | 14 | -21.4% | 0% | 14% |
| 📍 | AI·應用 | 領先 Leading | 0.15% | +42% | 92 | +26.4% | 100% | 80% |
| 📍 | 消費/品牌 | 落後 Lagging | 0.14% | +19% | 16 | -15.7% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 鋼鐵/金屬 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.13% | +7% | 69 | -9.2% | 14% | 0% |
| 📍 | 醫療服務 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.13% | -3% | 64 | -3.2% | 33% | 17% |
| 📍 | 消費 | 領先 Leading | 0.11% | +0% | 77 | +4.7% | 60% | 40% |
| 📍 | 其他主題 | 落後 Lagging | 0.10% | +82% | 38 | -10.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 太空/衛星 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.10% | +6% | 73 | -8.9% | 29% | 29% |
| 📍 | 消費 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.09% | -13% | 51 | -2.1% | 60% | 20% |
| 📍 | 基建/工程 | 落後 Lagging | 0.09% | +15% | 19 | -8.9% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 鋼鐵/金屬 | 領先 Leading | 0.08% | -8% | 74 | +3.5% | 25% | 25% |
| 📍 | 貴金屬/黃金 | 領先 Leading | 0.08% | -16% | 73 | +2.1% | 100% | 0% |
| 📍 | 稀土/關鍵礦物 | 落後 Lagging | 0.07% | -29% | 21 | -17.4% | 20% | 20% |
| 📍 | 稀土/關鍵礦物 | 落後 Lagging | 0.07% | +77% | 35 | -21.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 生技/醫療 | 落後 Lagging | 0.07% | -14% | 27 | -4.2% | 50% | 25% |
| 📍 | 鈾/核能 | 落後 Lagging | 0.06% | -26% | 10 | -23.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 航運/海運 | 領先 Leading | 0.06% | +11% | 94 | +18.2% | 100% | 0% |
| 📍 | 媒體娛樂 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.06% | +14% | 68 | -5.1% | 25% | 25% |
| 📍 | 其他主題 | 落後 Lagging | 0.05% | +10% | 26 | -15.0% | 12% | 0% |
| 📍 | 航運/海運 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.05% | -18% | 77 | +0.9% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 國防/航太 | 落後 Lagging | 0.05% | +27% | 4 | -11.9% | 33% | 0% |
| 📍 | 消費 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.04% | -50% | 60 | -1.7% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 工業/電氣 | 落後 Lagging | 0.04% | +56% | 25 | -13.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 落後 Lagging | 0.04% | +16% | 48 | -30.9% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 金融 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.02% | +52% | 60 | -0.6% | 17% | 0% |
| 📍 | 金融科技/Fintech | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.02% | +13% | 70 | -7.6% | 40% | 20% |
| 📍 | 鋼鐵/金屬 | 落後 Lagging | 0.01% | -51% | 36 | -17.6% | 0% | 0% |
| 📍 | 景氣循環 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.01% | +76% | 70 | -0.8% | 50% | 0% |
| 📍 | REITs | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.01% | -2% | 74 | -4.6% | 50% | 0% |
| 📍 | 其他主題 | 領先 Leading | 0.01% | -18% | 86 | +7.1% | 50% | 50% |
| 📍 | 公用事業 | 落後 Lagging | 0.00% | -59% | 28 | -4.2% | 50% | 50% |
「製造與運輸」的實體經濟,由上游往下游傳導:原料/採礦 → 鋼鐵/金屬 → 機械/建築 → 物流/運輸。上游原料先反應需求,整條鏈一起亮燈代表真正的工業景氣回升。
研發 → 商業化的醫療鏈:工具/CRO 賣設備服務給藥廠 → 新藥(含 GLP-1 減重)成功 → 醫材/手術 → 診斷/癌篩落地。上游工具/CRO 回溫常領先下游放量。
低軌衛星 (LEO) 與太空經濟:火箭把衛星送上軌道,衛星營運商提供通訊/影像,訊號落地後成為終端服務。火箭/製造發動常領先營運商與地面服務。
金價驅動的資金外溢順序:大型金礦商先反應金價 → 權利金/Streaming(低風險) → 白銀/PGM → 小型/開發礦(高 beta)補漲。上游大廠發動後,錢常往下游高 beta 外溢。
油氣價 → 上游探勘生產(E&P) 投資增 → 油服/設備接單 → 中游/油輪運輸 → 煉油下游。油價發動後沿鏈往下傳導。
國防預算 → 系統/電子整合商 → 無人機/自主武器(新需求) → 航太零件/引擎售後。大型系統商發動後資金常外溢到無人機與零件。
AI 電力需求 → 核能復興。一條清楚的上下游:鈾礦開採 → 濃縮/核燃料 → 反應爐/小型模組爐(SMR) → 核電公用/IPP(把電賣給資料中心)。上游鈾價/礦先反應需求,逐段往下游傳導。
供應鏈安全(reshoring)題:中國掌控全球稀土精煉/磁材 → 西方重建『開採 → 精煉/磁材 → 終端需求(EV/國防/風電/機器人)』。誠實但書:上游數檔(MP/USAR)為垂直整合(同時開採與磁材),故①②段成分有重疊、lead-lag 較弱;只有③終端需求端是不同個股。
| RS 水準\趨勢 | 上升 (>+2) | 持平 (−2~+2) | 下降 (<−2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RS 水準 ≥ 50 (強) | 🟢 領先 Leading | 🟦 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 🟠 轉弱 Weakening |
| RS 水準 < 50 (弱) | 🔵 轉強 Improving | ⚪ 打底 Basing | ⚫ 落後 Lagging |
常見疑問:一個子段可以同時「RS 水準在升」又「趨勢向下(動能冷)」,看似矛盾——其實兩者量的是不同的事。
| RS 水準 RS Level | 趨勢 trend | |
|---|---|---|
| 量什麼 | 排名(跟全市場所有股比,排第幾) | 報酬(跟大盤 SPY 比,最近賺多賺少) |
| 比較對象 | 全市場 ~2400 檔 | 大盤指數 SPY(大型股) |
| 時間 | 長(RS-rating 約 12 個月加權) | 短(20 日 + 60 日) |
| 性質 | 慢、是「地位/位置」 | 快、是「最近方向」 |
| 標 | 狀態 | 定義(依序,第一個成立者勝;機械、可複現) |
|---|---|---|
| 高 | broken 在高點 | 收盤 ≥ 52週高 ×(1−4%) |
| 破 | breaking 正在突破 | 近 5 日收盤曾 > 前 20 日高(仍在 52週高下) |
| 回 | pullback 創高後回檔 | 近期(≤25日)才創 52週高、現距高 ≥ 5% |
| 彈 | rebound 底部回升 | 近期(≤25日)探 ~3月相對低、自低回升 ≥ 8% 且站上 MA10 |
| 平 | flat 橫盤打底 | 以上皆非,且 0.6×20日+0.4×60日報酬在 ±4% 內 |
| 弱 | down 下降走弱 | 跌破 MA50 且混合報酬 < −4% |
每群先算 4 個比例(分母=成員數):突破%=(在高+突破)、回檔%=創高後修正、反彈%=底部回升、走弱%=下降;RS=成員平均 RS-rating。依序判斷:
| 順序 | heat | 條件 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 發動中 HOT | 突破% ≥ 50% 且 RS 水準 ≥ 70 |
| 2 | 🟣 回檔 Pullback | 回檔% ≥ 40% 且 RS 水準 ≥ 60 |
| 3 | 🔵 醞釀中 WARM | RS 水準 ≥ 60 或 突破% ≥ 30% 或 反彈% ≥ 40% |
| 4 | 🔴 走弱 FADING | 走弱% ≥ 50% |
| 5 | ⚪ 靜止 QUIET | 其餘(弱且打底) |
每次重大更新記在此(最新在上)。右上角「版本 build」顯示本頁實際產生的時間戳;資料更新由每日排程自動發布。