| 子段 | 母敘事 | 狀態 | 錢佔比 % | 資金4週Δ | 強弱 | 趨勢 | 廣度 | 突破 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 7.65% | -45% | 68 | +6.6% | 100% | 40% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 7.03% | +33% | 99 | +77.4% | 100% | 80% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 6.58% | -6% | 82 | +34.0% | 100% | 50% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 2.52% | +51% | 94 | +60.9% | 100% | 100% | |
| AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 2.45% | +728% | 93 | +77.6% | 100% | 100% | |
| AI·應用 | 領先 Leading | 2.36% | +150% | 86 | +37.9% | 88% | 88% | |
| AI 硬體供應 | 領先 Leading | 2.29% | +263% | 92 | +44.6% | 100% | 86% | |
| AI·模型 | 領先 Leading | 1.99% | +176% | 56 | +24.4% | 100% | 100% | |
| AI·應用 | 領先 Leading | 1.83% | -25% | 63 | +12.2% | 100% | 25% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 1.54% | +0% | 98 | +30.0% | 82% | 36% | |
| AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 1.30% | +27% | 96 | +41.2% | 100% | 80% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 1.29% | +2% | 93 | +42.6% | 100% | 64% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 1.19% | -23% | 93 | +12.4% | 76% | 59% | |
| AI·能源 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.97% | -22% | 84 | -0.7% | 62% | 0% | |
| 資安 | 領先 Leading | 0.96% | +159% | 74 | +26.3% | 80% | 80% | |
| 比特幣/加密 | 領先 Leading | 0.95% | +67% | 55 | +3.3% | 80% | 20% | |
| 太空/衛星 | 領先 Leading | 0.73% | +195% | 96 | +86.3% | 100% | 100% | |
| 比特幣/加密 | 領先 Leading | 0.70% | +51% | 55 | +3.8% | 67% | 33% | |
| 太空/衛星 | 領先 Leading | 0.70% | +227% | 95 | +34.0% | 100% | 86% | |
| 基建/工程 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.68% | +12% | 80 | +0.9% | 58% | 17% | |
| AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 0.65% | +81% | 80 | +11.7% | 100% | 50% | |
| AI·能源 | 落後 Lagging | 0.64% | -9% | 36 | -10.6% | 11% | 0% | |
| AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 0.63% | -15% | 91 | +14.3% | 100% | 0% | |
| AI·基礎建設 | 領先 Leading | 0.63% | +8% | 90 | +8.5% | 78% | 22% | |
| 能源/油氣 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.61% | +44% | 78 | -6.4% | 62% | 12% | |
| 軟體/網路 | 領先 Leading | 0.60% | +41% | 75 | +38.1% | 86% | 71% | |
| 金融科技/Fintech | 領先 Leading | 0.58% | +79% | 66 | +7.5% | 75% | 25% | |
| 工業/電氣 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.55% | -39% | 82 | -1.8% | 77% | 8% | |
| 國防/航太 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.52% | +3% | 60 | -2.1% | 83% | 50% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 0.52% | -25% | 94 | +23.6% | 100% | 100% | |
| AI·應用 | 落後 Lagging | 0.50% | -6% | 34 | -4.2% | 71% | 29% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 0.47% | -5% | 93 | +7.2% | 100% | 33% | |
| 金融科技/Fintech | 領先 Leading | 0.47% | +44% | 73 | +6.6% | 86% | 71% | |
| GLP-1/減重 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.44% | -52% | 66 | -3.0% | 67% | 67% | |
| 量子運算 | 領先 Leading | 0.42% | +65% | 83 | +42.9% | 100% | 100% | |
| 運輸/物流 | 領先 Leading | 0.40% | +42% | 81 | +4.3% | 100% | 75% | |
| AI·能源 | 落後 Lagging | 0.40% | -8% | 27 | -7.4% | 62% | 0% | |
| AI·應用 | 領先 Leading | 0.39% | +271% | 88 | +20.0% | 86% | 100% | |
| 消費/品牌 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.37% | +16% | 52 | -2.2% | 83% | 33% | |
| AI·能源 | 領先 Leading | 0.33% | +103% | 92 | +47.9% | 100% | 75% | |
| 貴金屬/黃金 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.32% | -6% | 74 | -11.8% | 25% | 8% | |
| 比特幣/加密 | 落後 Lagging | 0.32% | +5% | 13 | -15.5% | 33% | 0% | |
| 能源/油氣 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.32% | -14% | 76 | -5.9% | 80% | 20% | |
| AI 硬體供應 | 領先 Leading | 0.31% | -3% | 90 | +4.9% | 75% | 50% | |
| 比特幣/加密 | 領先 Leading | 0.29% | -25% | 93 | +47.3% | 100% | 100% | |
| 資安 | 領先 Leading | 0.27% | -1% | 80 | +22.3% | 100% | 83% | |
| 資安 | 領先 Leading | 0.26% | +208% | 55 | +33.0% | 100% | 100% | |
| AI·晶片 | 領先 Leading | 0.24% | +53% | 65 | +16.5% | 100% | 100% | |
| 國防/航太 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.23% | +5% | 64 | -4.3% | 67% | 56% | |
| 消費/品牌 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.21% | -45% | 58 | -3.3% | 50% | 25% | |
| 生技/醫療 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.20% | +56% | 77 | -2.5% | 58% | 33% | |
| 景氣循環 | 落後 Lagging | 0.17% | +47% | 28 | -12.3% | 60% | 0% | |
| 景氣循環 | 落後 Lagging | 0.16% | -12% | 47 | -6.7% | 40% | 20% | |
| 鋼鐵/金屬 | 領先 Leading | 0.16% | +31% | 83 | +12.8% | 100% | 100% | |
| 生技/醫療 | 領先 Leading | 0.15% | +30% | 70 | +11.4% | 100% | 75% | |
| 生技/醫療 | 落後 Lagging | 0.15% | +5% | 40 | -9.8% | 50% | 0% | |
| 貴金屬/黃金 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.14% | -8% | 80 | -10.8% | 50% | 0% | |
| 消費/品牌 | 落後 Lagging | 0.13% | +33% | 24 | -7.4% | 67% | 50% | |
| 鋼鐵/金屬 | 領先 Leading | 0.11% | +7% | 84 | +4.3% | 100% | 100% | |
| 鋼鐵/金屬 | 領先 Leading | 0.10% | -35% | 82 | +2.4% | 100% | 33% | |
| 生技/醫療 | 領先 Leading | 0.08% | -7% | 95 | +3.7% | 53% | 27% | |
| 稀土/關鍵礦物 | 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 0.08% | -55% | 82 | +0.4% | 100% | 0% | |
| 消費/品牌 | 落後 Lagging | 0.07% | -38% | 24 | -17.6% | 20% | 0% | |
| 鈾/核能 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.07% | -38% | 72 | -8.1% | 17% | 17% | |
| AI·應用 | 轉強 Improving | 0.07% | +42% | 49 | +14.3% | 80% | 80% | |
| 國防/航太 | 轉強 Improving | 0.07% | +51% | 15 | +4.3% | 67% | 67% | |
| 生技/醫療 | 落後 Lagging | 0.06% | -12% | 19 | -7.6% | 33% | 0% | |
| 貴金屬/黃金 | 落後 Lagging | 0.05% | -45% | 46 | -12.1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 稀土/關鍵礦物 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.05% | -35% | 88 | -8.8% | 33% | 0% | |
| 航運/海運 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.03% | -51% | 82 | -14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 航運/海運 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.03% | -13% | 76 | -10.2% | 17% | 0% | |
| 其他主題 | 轉弱 Weakening | 0.01% | +0% | 65 | -6.4% | 40% | 0% | |
| 金融科技/Fintech | 落後 Lagging | 0.01% | -43% | 15 | -13.1% | 33% | 33% |
「製造與運輸」的實體經濟，由上游往下游傳導：原料/採礦 → 鋼鐵/金屬 → 機械/建築 → 物流/運輸。上游原料先反應需求，整條鏈一起亮燈代表真正的工業景氣回升。
研發 → 商業化的醫療鏈：工具/CRO 賣設備服務給藥廠 → 新藥(含 GLP-1 減重)成功 → 醫材/手術 → 診斷/癌篩落地。上游工具/CRO 回溫常領先下游放量。
低軌衛星 (LEO) 與太空經濟：火箭把衛星送上軌道，衛星營運商提供通訊/影像，訊號落地後成為終端服務。火箭/製造發動常領先營運商與地面服務。
金價驅動的資金外溢順序：大型金礦商先反應金價 → 權利金/Streaming(低風險) → 白銀/PGM → 小型/開發礦(高 beta)補漲。上游大廠發動後，錢常往下游高 beta 外溢。
油氣價 → 上游探勘生產(E&P) 投資增 → 油服/設備接單 → 中游/油輪運輸 → 煉油下游。油價發動後沿鏈往下傳導。
國防預算 → 系統/電子整合商 → 無人機/自主武器(新需求) → 航太零件/引擎售後。大型系統商發動後資金常外溢到無人機與零件。
AI 電力需求 → 核能復興。一條清楚的上下游：鈾礦開採 → 濃縮/核燃料 → 反應爐/小型模組爐(SMR) → 核電公用/IPP(把電賣給資料中心)。上游鈾價/礦先反應需求，逐段往下游傳導。
供應鏈安全(reshoring)題：中國掌控全球稀土精煉/磁材 → 西方重建『開採 → 精煉/磁材 → 終端需求(EV/國防/風電/機器人)』。誠實但書：上游數檔(MP/USAR)為垂直整合(同時開採與磁材)，故①②段成分有重疊、lead-lag 較弱;只有③終端需求端是不同個股。
| 強弱＼趨勢 | 上升 (>+2) | 持平 (−2~+2) | 下降 (<−2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 強 (RS中位≥50) | 🟢 領先 Leading | 🟦 強勢盤整 Strong-Flat | 🟠 轉弱 Weakening |
| 弱 (RS中位<50) | 🔵 轉強 Improving | ⚪ 打底 Basing | ⚫ 落後 Lagging |
| 標 | 狀態 | 定義(依序，第一個成立者勝；機械、可複現) |
|---|---|---|
| 高 | broken 在高點 | 收盤 ≥ 52週高 ×(1−4%) |
| 破 | breaking 正在突破 | 近 5 日收盤曾 > 前 20 日高(仍在 52週高下) |
| 回 | pullback 創高後回檔 | 近期(≤25交易日)才創 52週高、現距高 ≥5% |
| 彈 | rebound 底部回升 | 近期(≤25日)曾探 ~3月相對低、已自低回升 ≥8% 且站上 MA10 |
| 平 | flat 橫盤打底 | 以上皆非，且 0.6×20日+0.4×60日報酬在 ±4% 內 |
| 弱 | down 下降走弱 | 跌破 MA50 且混合報酬 < −4% |
每群先算 4 個比例(分母=成員數)：突破%=(在高+突破)、回檔%=創高後修正、反彈%=底部回升、走弱%=下降；RS=成員平均 RS-rating。依序判斷：
| 順序 | heat | 條件 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 發動中 HOT | 突破% ≥ 50% 且 RS ≥ 70 |
| 2 | 🟣 回檔 Pullback | 回檔% ≥ 40% 且 RS ≥ 60 |
| 3 | 🔵 醞釀中 WARM | RS ≥ 60 或 突破% ≥ 30% 或 反彈% ≥ 40% |
| 4 | 🔴 走弱 FADING | 走弱% ≥ 50% |
| 5 | ⚪ 靜止 QUIET | 其餘(弱且打底) |